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12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - By the time the Carolina Panthers trot onto the Sportexe Momentum playing surface at the Louisiana Superdome on Sunday afternoon, they will know exactly what is at stake.
If the New York Giants fall to the Washington Redskins on Saturday night, then Carolina needs to defeat the homestanding New Orleans Saints to maintain a chance to reach the postseason. If the Giants win on Saturday, then Carolina head coach John Fox will be left to appeal to his team's sense of pride in avoiding what would go down as a thoroughly unsuccessful losing season.
The Panthers entered the year as a popular pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but a few notable injuries and some unforeseen inconsistency in all areas of the football team sunk Carolina in a morass of mediocrity. The team halted a four-game losing skid with last Sunday's 10-3 win in Atlanta, keeping itself in the mix for the conference's No. 6 seed and the right to travel to Philadelphia or Dallas in the opening playoff round. In addition to a win and a Giants loss, the Panthers would also need the Packers to lose in Green Bay on Sunday night to reach the postseason for the third time in five seasons under Fox.
But with the status of quarterback Jake Delhomme (thumb) again in question and the team just recently removed from a 2-6 stretch of football, there are major questions about Carolina's ability to capitalize on its good fortune even if the Giants are upset on Saturday night.
Not left to fight for its postseason life are the Saints, who are locked into the No. 2 spot in the NFC and the first-round playoff bye it will bring. New Orleans earned that much-coveted position on a weekend that saw it go to north Jersey and whip the Giants (30-7), a result that came a day before the Cowboys gift-wrapped a Saints bye with a home loss to the Eagles on Christmas evening.
New Orleans, which is in the playoffs for just the second time in 14 years, will be attempting to avenge an early-season defeat to Carolina while winning at the Superdome for just the second time in its last five home games.
SERIES HISTORY
Carolina leads its all-time series with New Orleans, 12-11, breaking a deadlock in the series with its 21-18 home victory back in Week 4. The Panthers are 4-0 in road games against the Saints since a 2001 loss at the Superdome, and were 27-10 victors when the clubs met in Baton Rouge last season. New Orleans' most recent win in the series was a 23-20 triumph in Charlotte in Week of the '05 campaign.
Fox has a 6-3 record against the Saints in his career, including 4-0 in road games. New Orleans' Sean Payton is 0-1 against both Fox and the Panthers as a head coach.
PANTHERS OFFENSE VS. SAINTS DEFENSE
By mid-week, there was actually considerable hope that Delhomme (2598 passing yards, 15 TD, 11 INT) would be able to suit up for Sunday's game, as he had managed to practice both Wednesday and Thursday and was upgraded to probable on the latter day's injury report. That was largely viewed as good news by many of the same Carolina fans who had pushed for the Cajun quarterback to be benched prior to Chris Weinke's three-game stint under center. Delhomme carries a mediocre passer rating of 79.4 into Sunday's game despite the presence of two elite-level wideouts in Steve Smith (76 receptions, 6 TD) and Keyshawn Johnson (67 receptions, 4 TD), and he had gone 2-4 in the six starts that predated his thumb injury. Delhomme could be taking the field just one week after Weinke threw only seven times (completing four for 32 yards and a touchdown pass to reserve tight end Jeff King) in a win over Carolina, a game that included zero catches for Smith and just one for Johnson. Smith and Johnson combined for 16 catches, 150 yards, and a touchdown (to Smith) in the first meeting with New Orleans on Oct. 1st. The Panthers have allowed 32 sacks on the year, including three of Weinke (625 passing yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) last week.
Delhomme could have some difficulty with his efficiency against a Saints defense that is allowing opponents to complete a league-low 54.6 percent of their passes and is third in NFL aerial defense (176.5 yards per game). New Orleans' pressure has been consistent if not relentless all season, with ends Will Smith (49 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Charles Grant (63 tackles, 6 sacks) doing a good job of locating the quarterback. Grant had six tackles against the Giants last week, but neither he nor Smith managed a a sack of Eli Manning. In the secondary, cornerbacks Mike McKenzie (33 tackles, 2 INT) and Fred Thomas (55 tackles, 1 INT) have been solid throughout 2006, and safeties Jay Bellamy (12 tackle) and Josh Bullocks (71 tackles, 2 INT) have been decent in support. Thomas notched his first interception of 2006 in last Sunday's win, and Bellamy ranked among team leaders with six tackles.
The two-headed rushing monster that Carolina had hoped to feature all season finally arrived in last week's win over the Falcons, when DeShaun Foster (818 rushing yards, 2 TD, 29 receptions) and DeAngelo Williams (494 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 2 TD) combined for 184 yards on 49 carries and consistently kept the ball out of Michael Vick's hands. The game marked the first time all year that both players carried more than 15 times each. For Foster, who accounted for 102 yards of the total, it was his first 100-yard performance since Week 5 against the Browns. Williams' 21 carries were his most as a pro, and his 82 yards were the second-highest total of his rookie campaign. The duo combined for 167 yards on 24 combined carries against New Orleans in Week 4. The Panthers are just 24th in NFL rushing offense (103.5 yards per game).
Run defense continues to be something of a liability for the Saints, who are just 24th in NFL rushing defense (130.5 yards per game) and 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.1). The good news is that New Orleans will be playing its last of four games without defensive tackle Hollis Thomas (43 tackles, 3.5 sacks), who is concluding his suspension for violating the NFL's steroid policy. Also encouraging is the fact that the Saints held the Giants' Tiki Barber to 71 yards on 16 carries last week, with linebackers Scott Fujita (94 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT) and Scott Shanle (93 tackles, 4 sacks) combining for eight tackles and two sacks in the victory. Fujita and Shanle are 1-2 on the team in stops as Week 17 begins. The team's most active player on the interior line has been tackle Brian Young (46 tackles, 5.5 sacks), who ranks third on the Saints in sacks in addition to his presence against the run.
SAINTS OFFENSE VS. PANTHERS DEFENSE
If Payton chooses to rest any of his starters on Sunday, which is hardly a foregone conclusion, the player at the top of that list would likely be quarterback and MVP candidate Drew Brees (4372 passing yards, 26 TD, 11 INT). Brees, who leads the NFL in passing yards and heads the league's No. 1 passing offense (284.5 yards per game), has eight 300-yard passing games to his credit this year. The New Orleans receiving corps will be depleted this week, with Joe Horn (37 tackles, 4 sacks) likely to miss his fourth straight game with a lingering groin injury and backup Terrance Copper (23 tackles, 3 sacks) questionable with a foot problem. Marques Colston (70 receptions, 8 TD) and Devery Henderson (30 tackles, 5 sacks) will probably start the game at wideout, with Jamal Jones (3 receptions, 1 TD) and Michael Lewis in line for some time as backups. Tight ends Mark Campbell (18 receptions) and Billy Miller (11 receptions) have both received regular time in 2006, though Campbell is questionable for Sunday with a knee malady. An overachieving New Orleans line has surrendered just 18 sacks all year, including one last week.
Perhaps the most encouraging element of the Panthers' win in Atlanta last week was the re-emergence of defensive end Julius Peppers (57 tackles, 13 sacks), who had been conspicuously quiet during Carolina's tumble down the NFC ladder. Peppers, who had gone five games without a sack, notched two against Michael Vick to run his 2006 total to a career-high 13. Al Wallace (22 tackles, 2 sacks), starting for the injured Mike Rucker (knee), had a single tackle in his first start of the year. Also making an impact was the secondary, which got an interception each from cornerback Ken Lucas (44 tackles, 3 INT) and safety Shaun Williams (68 tackles, 2 INT). Williams notched a team-high seven stops in the win as well. Peppers had a sack and a forced fumble against the Saints in Week 4, but Brees lit up the Carolina secondary for 349 yards. Carolina ranks fifth in the league against the pass (184.3 yards per game).
Saints running back Reggie Bush (545 rushing yards, 86 receptions, 7 TD) comes off a week in which he established season-bests in carries (20) and rushing yards (126), also scoring his sixth touchdown in a four-week span when he went in from one-yard out in the third quarter of the win over the Giants. Not to be outdone was primary rusher Deuce McAllister (1057 rushing yards, 10 TD, 30 receptions), who moved the chains with 108 yards on 27 carries and scored a touchdown of his own. Bush and McAllister became just third duo in Saints history to top 100 yards in the same game, and the first since the late Craig Ironhead" Heyward and Reuben Mayes did it in 1990. McAllister has gone over 100 yards in three of his last four outings, and has helped New Orleans to improve to 17th in the league in rushing offense (113.3 yards per game) over that stretch.
McAllister and Bush will be looking to improve upon their last outing against the Panthers, when they combined for just 61 yards on 22 combined carries. Bush also lost a fumble in that game. Carolina improved to 13th in the league against the run (111.7 yards per game) last week, when they limited the Falcons to 83 yards on the ground and generally avoided the back-breaking play. Linebackers Chris Draft (93 tackles, 5 sacks) and Thomas Davis (88 tackles, 1.5 sacks) combined for nine tackles in the victory, with Draft also contributing his fifth sack of the year to the triumph. Davis (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday. Defensive tackles Kris Jenkins (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Maake Kemoeatu (34 tackles) were not overly busy in the win, with only Kemoeatu finishing with a tackle on the day.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
New Orleans is not the type of team that can afford to rest a large number of starters in a meaningless finale such as this, since the young Saints need to enter the postseason with their heads held high after beating an always- formidable division opponent. With that in mind, expect to see most if not all of New Orleans' stars for four quarters. That's not to say that the Saints will play with as much passion as they might in a crucial contest, which is why no matter the stakes, this game should be closely-contested. Expect the Saints to make their usual flurry of big plays to impress the home fans, and look for whoever plays quarterback for Carolina to make one big fourth-quarter mistake to doom the Panthers' chances.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Saints 22, Panthers 21
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