Oswalt to make debut as red-hot Phils head to Washington

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second straight season, the Philadelphia Phillies have acquired one of the top available pitchers prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. The timing couldn't be better, as the club has used a season-high winning streak to make up ground in the National League East.

The second-place Phillies hope newly-acquired Roy Oswalt can pitch them to a ninth straight victory this evening in the opener of a three-game series with the hosting Washington Nationals.

Philadelphia was a bigger winner at last year's deadline, getting Cliff Lee from the Cleveland Indians for a handful of prospects. Lee went 7-4 with a 3.39 earned run average in 12 regular-season starts with the Phillies, helping them reach the World Series for a second straight season.

Lee was traded this offseason to Seattle for prospects after the Phils nabbed Roy Halladay from Toronto in a deal. But with Jaime Moyer injured, Joe Blanton struggling and little depth in the rotation this year, the Phillies sent pitcher J.A. Happ and two prospects to the Houston Astros on Thursday for Oswalt, who will team with Halladay and Cole Hamels at the top of Philadelphia's rotation.

"It's exciting for sure," Oswalt told MLB.com. "I think it works out for both of us. Houston's getting good prospects and another pitcher, and I'm getting to go to a great team. I'm happy for both sides. From the very beginning, I said I wouldn't accept it unless it worked out for both of us, and I think it worked out."

The right-handed Oswalt is just 6-12 on the season despite a 3.42 ERA, but was averaging just 2.26 runs of support in his 20 starts, Houston's offense was limited to two runs or less in 12 of those outings and scored just four runs over Oswalt's last six starts with the Astros.

Oswalt, who had to waive a no-trade clause to make the deal happen, leaves Houston having gone 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA in 303 games (291 starts) over nine-plus seasons, leaving him one victory shy of tying Joe Niekro for most wins in franchise history.

The 32-year-old is 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA lifetime versus the Nats, who pounded him for four runs on four hits and three walks in a loss on May 31. Oswalt's frustration got the better of him that night, and he was ejected after just 2 1/3 innings of work for his shortest outing of the season.

Oswalt joins a Phillies club that has won eight in a row to get within 2 1/2 games of the first-place Braves. Philadelphia's bullpen blew a ninth-inning lead in Thursday's finale of a three-game series with Arizona, but Wilson Valdez hit the Phils to victory with a game-winning RBI single in the 11th inning of a 3-2 triumph.

Philadelphia hits the road for six straight after winning all seven games of its homestand. It marked its first perfect homestand of at least six games since Aug. 6-12, 1991.

The Nationals gave the Phillies some help on Thursday when they knocked off the Braves, 5-3, to take two of three in the series and win for the fourth time in 12 games. Their reward is a matchup with Oswalt.

"[Oswalt's] a power pitcher. A lot of us have faced him plenty," Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman said. "It's not like a new guy we've ever faced before, but he's been one of the better pitchers in the league the last 10 years and he comes right at you."

Ian Desmond and Adam Dunn, who could see himself traded prior to Saturday's deadline, both homered for Washington and Scott Olsen got the win after allowing three runs -- two earned -- over six innings in his return from the disabled list.

Matt Capps notched his 26th save for Washington, but was then traded after the game to the Twins. In return, the Nationals received Wilson Ramos, one of the top catching prospects in baseball, and minor league pitcher Joe Testa.

Craig Stammen draws the unfortunate task of opposing Oswalt in his Phillies debut. The right-hander has struggled against Philadelphia in two career starts -- both this year -- allowing 11 runs in 6 1/3 total innings without a decision. The bulk of that damage came on April 14, when he gave up seven runs over just 1 1/3 frames.

Stammen is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA this year and winless in four starts since a victory on June 29. The 26-year-old has gone 0-2 with a 6.86 ERA in that time and got a no-decision versus Milwaukee on Friday after allowing three runs on five hits over five innings.

The Phillies have won four of six over Washington this year, taking two of three at Nationals Park from April 5-8. Philadelphia is 22-5 over its last 27 meetings versus Washington and won seven of nine in D.C. last year.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com

For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com

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