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12/29/2006 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Given that this is the last week of the regular season, what better time than the present to release the hottest trends for all 32 NFL teams. Some clubs are heading into their final game with a lot on the line, such as the Giants and a few other NFC teams trying for that second wild card spot, while a few playoff squads are battling for first- round byes.
ARIZONA is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and OVER the total in five straight.
ATLANTA is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games. The Falcons have also gone UNDER the total in seven of their last eight and four straight on the road.
BALTIMORE is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in its last nine games, going OVER in its last two.
BUFFALO is 7-1 ATS in its last eight contests, including three straight covers away from home. The Bills have also gone OVER the total in five of their last six games.
CAROLINA is 1-4 ATS in its last five and has gone OVER in three of its last four.
CHICAGO is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games, but 0-2 ATS in its last two. The Bears have gone OVER the total in four straight and all seven at Soldier Field this year.
CINCINNATI is 5-1 ATS in its last six tilts and the Bengals have gone UNDER the total in five of their last six games.
CLEVELAND is 6-3 ATS in its last nine and 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games.
DALLAS is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a double-digit favorite, but the Cowboys are just 1-2-1 ATS in their last four overall.
DENVER is 1-6 ATS in its last seven contests. The Broncos have gone OVER the total in all four games Jay Cutler has started.
DETROIT is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. The Lions are 1-6 ATS and 5-2 to the OVER in their seven road games this season.
GREEN BAY is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in its last three contests. The Packers have gone UNDER the last two games, but are 3-0 to the OVER in their last three on the road.
HOUSTON is 2-4 both SU and ATS in its last six and has gone OVER in four straight.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-5 ATS in its last seven and 5-2 to the UNDER in those games.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS on the road this season. The Jags are 4-2-1 to the UNDER on the road in 06 after going 6-2 to the OVER last season.
KANSAS CITY is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games, but is 4-2 ATS in its last six at home. The Chiefs are also 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven contests.
MIAMI is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four and has gone UNDER the total in five consecutive games. The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS on the road this season.
MINNESOTA is 2-7 ATS in its last nine match-ups and 0-4 ATS in its last four at home. The Vikings have gone OVER in five of their last seven overall.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-1 SU and ATS on the road in 06, but just 3-5 ATS in its last eight overall. The Pats have gone UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 games.
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 ATS in its last five, but only 2-4 ATS in its last six at home. The Saints have gone UNDER the total in five of their last six games.
NEW YORK GIANTS are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight and have gone OVER the total in seven of their last 10 road games.
NEW YORK JETS are 4-1 ATS in their last five and 6-2 to the UNDER in their last eight. The Jets are 5-2 to the OVER at home this year.
OAKLAND is 0-8 SU in its last eight and 0-4 ATS in its last four. The Raiders have gone UNDER in 10 of their last 11 and are 0-3-1 ATS vs. the Jets the last four meetings.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after going 1-5 ATS in its previous six.
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 ATS in its last four, but just 1-6 ATS on the road this season.
SAN DIEGO is 9-0 SU, but only 5-4 ATS in its last nine. The Chargers are 8-3 to the OVER in their last 11 games.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-3 ATS in its last four match-ups after covering its previous four. The 49ers are 5-2-1 to the UNDER in their last eight games.
SEATTLE is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 and 1-6 ATS on the road this season. The Seahawks are 9-3-1 to the OVER in their last 13 contests.
ST. LOUIS is 2-4 ATS in its last six and 7-2 to the UNDER in its last nine road games.
TAMPA BAY is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine and 3-1 to the OVER in its last four at home.
TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS in its last seven and 5-0 ATS in its last five at home.
WASHINGTON is 4-1 to the UNDER in its last five, including three in a row at home. The Redskins and Giants have played five straight OVERS in Washington.
THIS WEEKS TOP PLAYS
How can I not go with the Eagles for a third straight week? They won their last two games while getting points from both the Giants and Cowboys. Now they come back home to take on the Falcons, who are a shell of themselves at 7-8 after opening the season at 5-2.
Atlanta has scored over 17 points a game just twice since October and will be lucky to get two touchdowns against a fired-up Philly defense. Jeff Garcia has meant the world to the Eagles and has directed them to four straight victories.
The 8-point line is high for a reason. Philadelphia is by far the better team heading into the last week of the season, one in which the Eagles will make the playoffs, while the Falcons will be home for the New Year.
Take Philadelphia minus the points.
Finally, the Bears host the Packers in what could be Brett Favres last game. Chicago has clinched home field throughout the NFC playoffs and will rest a lot of players, but this game could be meaningless for Green Bay if the Packers cant make the postseason. Since this game is the Sunday night contest, the Packers will know beforehand if they have anything to play for themselves.
Last season, the Bears got stomped by Minnesota 34-10 in the final game of the season and were crushed at home by the Panthers in the playoffs. Im sure Lovie Smith and the players remember that loss, so expect a much better effort in this seasons last game prior to the postseason.
Take Chicago minus the points.
<< Haller in intensive care
Augsburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first goal-scorer of the 1966 World
Cup final, Helmut Haller, has been placed in the intensive care unit at a
German hospital after suffering a heart attack on Friday.
Haller made 33 appearance
<< Trojans and Wolverines mix it up in 93rd Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Legendary college football programs USC and
Michigan add yet another chapter to their storied histories when they meet in
the 93rd Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.
USC is making its unprecedented fifth
<< Yellow Jackets attempt to sting Mountaineers in Jacksonville
Jacksonville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - ALLTEL Stadium in Jacksonville is the
venue for the 2007 Gator Bowl which features the 13th-ranked West Virginia
Mountaineers and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.
After going 11-1 and winning
<< Nittany Lions and Volunteers meet in Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tennessee Volunteers and Penn State Nittany
Lions will travel South for a New Year's Day matchup in the Outback Bowl.
After a lackluster campaign in 2005, Tennessee has returned to form in 2006 by
winni
Paul sidelined a month with sprained ankle >>
Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets guard
Chris Paul is expected to be sidelined for at least four weeks because of a
sprained right ankle.
Paul was hurt during Tuesday's game against Seattle and unde
Hingis engaged to ATP's Stepanek >>
Gold Coast, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former world No. 1 Martina Hingis
announced that she is engaged to fellow tennis pro Radek Stepanek. The Swiss
star informed a news conference on Friday that the two were engaged last month
in Prag
Woods to start 2007 at Torrey Pines >>
Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods has decided to skip the first three
events of the 2007 PGA Tour campaign and will make his season debut in late
January, as the two-time defending champion at the Buick Invitational in
Califor
Wigan brings Haestad to England >>
Birmingham, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After being shopped around to many
Premiership teams, Norwegian central midfielder Kristofer Haestad decided to
make his move to Wigan on loan from IK Start for the remainder of the season.
The
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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